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'There is a likelihood of electricity prices rising as higher priced coals would have to be imported, potentially fueling inflationary pressure,' Kundu added. 'Any which way, there will be a short-term dent in activities.' 'Given India's massive dependence on thermal power, we might see domestic coal suppliers diverting their supply to the thermal power plants away from industries like steel, cement etc,' Societe Generale's Kundu told CNBC by email. In fact this year, domestic coal supply has substituted imports by a substantial measure.'

'Therefore, any fear of coal stocks depleting at the power plant end is erroneous. 'The coal available at the power plants is a rolling stock which gets replenished by the supplies from the coal companies on a daily basis,' the ministry said. The Ministry of Coal said Sunday that the country has sufficient coal to meet power plant demands and that fears of disruption in power supply are 'unfounded' and 'erroneous.' Indian authorities sought to allay fears of a supply crunch. 'If demand goes up substantially, I don't know what could be the steps, but you could look at steps like they may bring about curb on exports in sectors which are power-intensive in nature,' said Gandhi. 'Whenever imported prices go up substantially, the incentive for domestic manufacturers to import coal and produce power is on the lower side,' she said. Since power is subsidized for most farmers and many households in India, the burden of higher coal prices will mainly fall on industrial consumers who account for only 25% to 30% of power consumption, according to Gandhi. So when international prices increase, domestic prices do not rise as substantially since it would affect power prices and inflation - utility companies are unable to pass on higher costs to most consumers. India's domestic coal is also of a lower heating value - which means more of it is needed to substitute imported coal, thus adding further pressure on domestic power plants, she said.Д¬oal prices in India are mostly decided by the state-owned Coal India.

For example, transportation costs are rising due to a higher demandВ for shippingВ and congestions at ports as the world economy slowly recovers from the pandemic. Why is coal supply running out?Д®ven then, coal imports were hamstrung by supply disruptions due to the pandemic and logistics issues, according to the CRISIL's Gandhi. Rainy seasonВ typicallyВ makes that transportation more difficult as many routes tend to flood. Logistical issues due to the monsoon season also constrained coal supply, despite there being enough pithead stocks available at Coal India, Sandeep Kalia, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told CNBC.ДЄ pithead refers to the top of a mineshaft where most of the mined coal is kept before being transported to power companies. All of thatВ ledВ toВ an increase in coal-fired power generation. Some other factors includedВ a sharp increase in gas prices as well as maintenance shutdowns at nuclear power plants, she said. Gandhi said anВ unevenly distributed monsoon season was one of the factors.В Less rainfall in some areas adversely affected the production of hydropower, or water power. Other sources of electricity generation - such as hydropower, gas and nuclear -В also declined.

Thermal power companies have had lean coal inventories and did not anticipate the spike in power demand this year,В Gandhi explained.

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